An unexpectedly good result - now the fallout

I wasn't wrong in guessing that the night following the General Election would be momentous. An unexpectedly good result for the Conservatives. The way is now open for progress on many issues, both international and domestic.

I'm especially pleased that Brexit - the formal, legal severance anyway - can go ahead unhindered. In divorce terms, the country will get its decree absolute. The Financial Settlement will still be hotly argued, but will come. I suspect that it will turn out to be a rather 'soft' Brexit, so that trading conditions are made as easy and fluid as possible. So that it will still be straightforward to take a holiday in Europe. So that co-operation on cross-border issues like security, climate change, scientific projects and medical research can continue.

I'm OK about most flavours of Brexit, so long as the creeping federal ambitions of the EU stop at Calais, and will never apply this side of the English Channel. I want the culture, atmosphere and outlook here - the British way of life - to remain resolutely distinct from what obtains in continental Europe. Not that there's anything wrong with people and places in Europe, nor indeed anywhere else; I simply want to grow old in a country that I can still call 'mine'; one that remains familiar to me. I don't think that's a trivial or selfish thing to want.

Mind you, I expect the next twenty years to be increasingly dominated (and possibly overwhelmed) by change imposed by worsening weather and the damage it will do. The odds are shortening for death by exposure to high winds, or drowning in flash floods. Many more people will be suffering in the summer from heat stroke; many more in winter from hypothermia.

The traditional, beloved English landscape will alter as temperatures rise. I expect to find future summers rather a trial, as I don't like a lot of heat. Winters will also be a challenge, if the weather turns Canadian. I will dread slipping on ice and breaking something. And I'll have to carry a survival kit in the car, to keep myself alive when venturing out in snowy conditions.

I'm not a pessimist, but I do think that in my seventies and eighties I'll face extreme weather never before experienced in this country, which may on occasion be life-threatening. If we get to that point, arguments about trade deals may seem something of a side-issue.

But for now - as the country takes a deep breath - there are immediate concerns. The 'new' Conservative government has made many promises that must swiftly be fulfilled. And if they are, then a lot of money will need to be spent. There's a promise not to increase the rates of income tax and VAT for five years - rather rashly made, unless new revenue-raising ideas are going to find expression. That might well be. It would be hard for anyone to argue against new taxes that will encourage good health and green living. And money must be raised to pay for the long-awaited new deal on Social Care. I wouldn't be surprised to see a broad slew of new taxes, plus extensions to the scope of VAT, even if the general rate of VAT doesn't rise. 

Politically, the breakup of the Union will be on the agenda.

I think Scotland will get the chance of another referendum on independence. The SNP have a very good case. I'm not sure that the result will be much different from the last one, but if there is now a majority for independence, then I think it should be granted. It'll have to be a 'soft' independence, of course, as Scotland won't want to cut itself off from its main cultural and trading partner south of the Border. Besides, I'll still want to visit Scotland, and tour that wonderful country without feeling like an unwelcome guest.

Northern Ireland seems like a territory in limbo, waiting to be attached to a country. Like Scotland, it has a profound distaste for (and distrust of) direct English government from far-away London. A very Irish remedy seems appropriate, and I do see how it would make sense to explore unification with the republic. That would mean a Northern Ireland IndyRef. And probably one in the republic too. What a palaver. Still, I would not be surprised to see serious talks on that begin.

For now, Wales seems content to string along with England, so long as it has plenty of devolved power and a lot of local control. Plaid Cymru in Wales certainly do not have the clout and representative authority that the SNP in Scotland have, and I don't think there is anything like the same appetite for independence. Even so, I'd be surprised if the call for a Welsh IndyRef didn't start to get louder. Who knows, I may yet get to claim a Welsh passport, as well as an English one! I'm sure that, like Scotland, the border would be 'soft'.

I'm pretty unconcerned about the break-up of the Union. I certainly wouldn't oppose it. I don't think that it would actually make very much difference to daily life in England. Certainly not to daily life in Sussex. And I'm all in favour of nation states having self-determination and being in control of their own affairs.

The advantages of the Union seem symbolic rather than practical. Scotland already has its own legal system and taxation powers. Wales and Northern Ireland have English laws specially adapted for local conditions. On the world stage, both Scotland and Wales contend as separate nations in several sports. Scotland and Wales both have natural resources such as water and hydro-electric power, to 'sell' to England. England itself can 'sell' both of them their shares in the overarching cost of defence, and the cost of infrastructure projects that need a co-ordinated approach, such coastal protection from the rising sea level.

Some regard the United Kingdom as sacrosanct. But historical associations are not set in stone. For better or worse, the British Empire broke up into independent countries, and this was an inevitable and natural progression. The same should apply to our own local empire. The territories concerned don't all have to become troublesome republics.

Why, Wales could become a proper proud Principality again, with a new head of state. A poet, perhaps. Someone with vision.

And Scotland could restore its monarchy, with all its lords and ladies in their high-heeled shoon. Queen Nicola: it has a certain ring to it. And who knows, there might be a revival of the Auld Alliance. Inspiring notions.