Friday, 6 November 2020

History in the making

We are watching history being made. America's unwise experiment with Donald Trump is grinding slowly to its conclusion, and the man will soon have to face that awful moment when all hope disappears, and the consequences have to be borne. 

It's not quite all over yet, but it does appear that Joe Biden's ever-growing lead in the Presidential Race is going to be decisive, and no money thrown at fancy lawyers can even up the score. Mr Trump can't do a Jesse James. 

True, the Republican-dominated Supreme Court awaits any litigation that gets that far, and they could pronounce in Mr Trump's favour on his strident claims that the election has been twisted and warped by Democrat-directed cheating and miscounting. But I don't think it will. Here's why.

The lack of any decisive vindication of Trumpism this time around has weakened the man's position, and loosened his grip. Fear of what he might do if stood up to will be receding. His power is already waning. He is a wounded animal at bay. 

He can still bluster and accuse, and threaten, and be spiteful, but he looks like a man who has lost, even if he won't yet concede. All his substantial support around the country hasn't been enough. The rust-belt rednecks and southern gentlemen and mid-west farmers haven't prevailed. The nightmare of a dumbed-down America is passing, the mood changing, and the shadow is lifting. There is surely a growing feeling that America is about to recover its lost identity, its lost nobility and dignity; and that idealism and high aspiration are going to make a comeback. In that climate, political differences come second to Restoring the Soul of America. So I believe that the Republican appointees on the Supreme Court will be concerned - inspired - to take a balanced view, a view that loves America, and not be simply partisan puppets. 

Mind you, that threatened litigation could still go ahead, if only to delay the end and spoil Mr Biden's victory, although I wonder who will bankroll it? 

The Republican Party presumably has deep pockets, but they might baulk at the cost of hundreds of major lawsuits, merely on the off-chance of swinging the voting results marginally in their favour. So they may say to Mr Trump: you pay for this. And although he may have a lot of money, he can't fight every single case. I understand that being President enabled him to hold off certain large creditors, and that he was depending on re-election in order to continue that situation. Perhaps he will now have to actually repay what he owes, and won't be able to fight a long string of lawsuits as well. 

The Republican Party will accept the situation, content to have retained an edge in the Senate, even if control of the House of Representatives has slid from their grasp. I'm sure they'd rather keep their war-chest intact for the next contest in only four years time, when perhaps Mike Pence will be their front runner. (Not a nice thought, that; but Donald Trump will be past his peak) 

I really don't see Mr Trump as a good loser, willing to be sincerely gracious and magnanimous to the man who proved more popular. He surely hasn't the temperament for that. He will bellow and shout in his pain and anger and disappointment. And encourage his supporters to do the same. It's not the behaviour of a great statesman, nor is it the behaviour of a great President. How the leaders of China, Russia and North Korea will smile. 

Will Mr Biden be the one to wipe those smiles off their faces? We'll have to wait and see. I sense that he will go slowly and carefully, and wish to foster cool, realistic, no-nonsense but sensible relations with the rest of the world, for his programme will contain so much that is international. He will seem grey and humdrum to many; but that lack of pizzazz and constant contention will come as a soothing relief after four years of bewildering and unedifying events. He's a moderator and healer. 

He's pretty old, and will have only this one crack at the Presidency, so I'm certain that he'll be wanting to leave a good legacy and not just grab headlines.

Meanwhile, a question or two: will Mr Trump trash the White House before he is evicted? Will it indeed take a Supreme Court order to get him out? (Wouldn't that be ironic)