The Long Goodbye

So it looks as if the end game is at last approaching for Brexit.

As I understand it, a deal must be finalised in October, or the whole negotiating process will fold. That's only three months away. Even if something is hammered out, it must be approved by Parliament. And that means that all the various political factions who have a particular interest in how it affects them will want their point of view to prevail. I don't think there can possibly be general agreement. The result of the final vote in Parliament looks incalculable. As incalculable as the result of a second referendum would be, if one took place.

Personally, I will now be very surprised if there is a Tidy And Smooth Brexit, with everyone satisfied, and all sides willing to implement an agreed procedure in an agreed timescale. I'm expecting a Hard Bumpy Brexit by default.

At the back of my mind is a suspicion that, for many in this country, nothing much will change - or at least there will be no great surprises. The price of anything imported from or through the EU will certainly increase. That in time can be mitigated by finding alternative sources, and having facilities to deal with them direct. Let's say that a new port the size of Rotterdam were built somewhere on the west coast of Britain, with road and rail links to take the goods fast and efficiently to where they are needed. The price of holidays in EU countries will increase, and the rigmarole of getting through customs controls will be more drawn out, but I don't suppose any of that will deter people going to France, Spain, Italy or Greece for their sunshine or cultural holidays.

Britain will no longer be a presence in the decision-making chambers of Europe. We will choose our own course. Our priorities and policies will begin to diverge. The atmosphere in Britain will be not quite the same as the atmosphere in Paris or Prague.

But there is the now-clear time bomb of climate change to face. It won't just affect Africa. Everywhere there will be the marginalisation of agriculture, and the loss of coastal land to rising sea levels, perhaps sooner than anyone dare think. Increasingly all governments will have to co-operate for the common good, although no doubt some will decide to fight for the best of what is left. I am sure there will be food and water wars, here and there around the world, in my remaining lifetime. Forget oil. Water, and green land to live on, will eventually be the key assets to have.

So I can't see that cutting the mooring-ropes will make the good ship Britannia drift very far away from the European Continent. Nor reawaken historic unrest in Europe. We will all have to stay in touch, and consult, and jointly take the lead in whatever planet-saving endeavours need to be put in hand. I dismiss the notion of 'Fortress Britannia', with a moat all around it. Unless a party committed to protectionist and isolationist policies gets votes and takes charge. It's absolutely in our long-term interest to remain not only international in outlook, but firm friends with the countries on the Continent and elsewhere. I voted Brexit to keep the soul of Britain intact, and not to alienate the rest of the world.

Still, the personal question arises, what preparations can I make for a Hard Brexit? What ought to be done? Can anything be done?

It seems to me that in many ways my own life will go on much as before, with just minor changes to what I can buy in the shops. I don't holiday abroad, so I escape the possible extra inconveniences and costs associated with that. My income won't suffer, although I expect to pay more tax. That's about it, I think. A lot less change than what will come, willy-nilly, from new technologies and shifts in social attitudes in the years ahead.

Will the population start to shrink? British people emigrating in large numbers, seeking an EU lifestyle, and immigration slowing down across the board? We will not know for a while. I think Britain will continue to be a magnet for people in other countries, but for different reasons.

Meanwhile those Brexit negotiations will go on in the Last Chance Saloon as if something worthwhile can still be achieved. You almost feel like telling them to stop the show now, and create extra time for a decorous and less breathless Goodbye.

At least there is the prospect of opting out of the annual farce called the Eurovision Song Contest!