I'm following the first weeks of President Trump's reign as the new King of America with keen interest. It's so dismaying. And I'm puzzled how, given that the US Constitution is supposed to have 'checks and balances', he can do what he does. It looks so very much like the exercise of arbitrary and unrestrained power. You know, how a real dictator would behave (and there are plenty of those around the world, prominent or petty, who can serve as role models).
I hear that half of America - the sensible, responsible half - is groaning at President Trump's media posts and his public posturing, if not actually beside themselves with concern that he will ruin the country (and the whole world) with his policies. I always had a personal prejudice against anybody who wears baseball caps: such a bad sign. How right that instinct was. President Trump is blatantly and crudely pandering to his home supporters: badly-educated misogynistic rednecks, the gun-obsessed, the bible bigots, and all those millions who wallow in selfish self-interest in El Dollarado. It doesn't seem to matter that a misbehaving and fast-imploding America, once the Bastion of Democracy, is becoming a land at odds with itself. What a delightful thing this must be for rival superpowers to see.
It was a mistake to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. Will the Atlantic be renamed the 'American Ocean'. No, of course not. The Pacific Ocean will get that name.
How can all this win global appreciation and respect? How can America become 'Great Again' by sneering at its own allies, and making existential threats against various territories? It will only make America a country to be wary of, and soon a country to avoid.
Politics is a serious business, and not for amateurs, whatever their experience as deal-makers in real estate. It needs an unusual kind of person, not like you or me. A person who combines principle, vision, deep knowledge, wisdom, foresight, subtlety, stamina and personal appeal. I exclude ambition, and a hunger for power and prestige, from my list of essential qualities, although sadly these baser propellants usually go with the finer attributes.
Where will it end? President Trump faces four likely outcomes.
First, he will succumb to old age. He'll soon be eighty. Then it will be 'Sleepy Donald'. There will be calls for him to retire to Mar-O-Lago. He may indeed run out of steam, make slips, and lose his grip. Then the sharks - the younger aspirants in the Republican Party - will have a feeding-frenzy. In the first instance, the replacement has to be the current Vice-President, Mr J D Vance. But Mr Vance has stiff competition, who will try to shoulder him aside. Whoever eventually grabs the reins of power in the 2028 elections, he will ensure that Former President Trump's legacy is trashed in favour of his own.
Second, the cuckoo in the nest - Elon Musk - will nudge him out. Mr Musk is a self-obsessed amoral man of no conscience and crazy ambition. But he is much younger, and even richer, and if anyone has to choose between the two of them, Mr Musk is superficially the more attractive choice. He's unelected? Tush. A mere detail.
Third, President Trump will over-reach himself and get ensnared in a constitutional net, an outcome especially likely if the US Supreme Court, despite being composed of mostly his own appointees, turns against him. Senior judges have a habit of regarding themselves as jealous and independent guardians of legal principle, and even Republican-minded judges have red lines. President Trump could well find himself impeached and pulled down. Nobody has forgotten Richard Nixon.
Fourth, President Trump may fall victim to another - and this time successful - assassination attempt. America has a disturbing history of political assassinations. Personally, I hope it doesn't happen, as making him St Donald the Martyr would be no solution.
How soon? President Trump looks vigorous enough for now, but it won't last. As time goes by the chances of his making some calamatous error of judgement will increase. If he can bring himself to do it, it would make sense to bow out while riding high. But this is a wayward man who does the unexpected, and he may hang on well beyond his sell-by date, convinced that he can still pull off astonishing deals. That won't be good to watch. Perhaps someone can persuade him that heading up (say) PGA Tour would be a more suitable career.
