Monday 15 October 2018

The long, slow Grand National

Honestly, following the arcane twists and turns of the Brexit negotiations - which are at last coming to a decisive head - is like watching a horse race like the Grand National in slow motion. We all know there is going to be a gigantic pile-up at the final jump, the horses and jockeys losing their nerve or misjudging the height of the fence, or stumbling into the water on the other side. With casualties. All to be watched and replayed and analysed. Will anything at all make it to the finishing post? Impossible to say.

I'm tempted to say: who cares? The negotiations have been done under wraps, away from public interference and intervention. I imagine only a small inner clique within the government, some civil servants sworn to secrecy, and of course the Queen, really know what will be unveiled during the next few days. Everyone else, including Her Majesty's Opposition and business leaders, will have to wait and see.

Will we be delighted or dismayed?

Just relieved. When there is no public participation in the shaping of a deal, you lose interest in it, and just want to see the long, slow agony come to an end with some kind of definite result. Actually moving forward into the post-Brexit phase is now the most important thing. Whatever the terms of getting out, ordinary people need to know how all this will impact on them. Whether, for instance, it will be easy or difficult to take a holiday in France or Spain or Greece in 2019.

People like me, who don't go abroad, may ride the upheaval with little damage. In fact, so far as I can guess, the fallout from Brexit will hardly affect me, apart from predictable rises in certain prices, and extra taxation. And to compensate, I will experience the changes and new freedoms Brexit will bring about. I will enjoy them all within my remaining lifetime. But other people I know might be very inconvenienced.

At least the end game is near, and one will soon know what those problems will be. It's like an undiagnosed illness: you worry yourself to death about it while all the tests are done. You fear the very worst. It's a relief to finally know the facts, because then some definite things can be done to alleviate the situation and adapt to it.

Have the government been a bunch of amateurs in these negotiations? Impossible to judge. I have no confidence that Her Majesty's Opposition would have been more competent, for all the noises they make. I do think that a better political team could have been put together, and I don't mean a team made up of ambitious flamboyant figureheads full of self-interest. I admire Theresa May for her dogged determination to do her best, and stick to principles, but it's obvious that we can't detach ourselves neatly from a forty-year union without pain and destruction, whatever the advantages. I think she is too principled, too stubborn, too dogmatic. Those things command respect in many quarters, but they won't do.

What would Napoleon have done? That's always a good question. He would have done something bold and forthright. If I had the reins of power I would go for broke. I would offer Northern Ireland the chance to become an independent country, or become one with the Irish Republic. Surely all persons across the Irish Sea are, first and foremost, Irish and no doubt proud of it, and only secondarily UK citizens. Let Northern Ireland have a referendum to decide where it wants to go. Organised before Christmas. I think the outcome would be a United Ireland (hurrah!) and no border issue for the rest of the UK to worry about.

Yes, the UK would be smaller, and very likely there would also be an independent Wales and Scotland within a few years. Why not? Why is 'defending the Union' such a sacred cow?

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